Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth

By Bill Powers

Conventional knowledge has North the United States getting into a brand new period of strength abundance because of shale gasoline. yet has been sincere? Cold, Hungry and in the dead of night argues that declining productiveness mixed with expanding call for will set off a situation that may reason costs to skyrocket, harm the economic climate, and feature a profound effect at the lives of approximately each North American.
Relying on defective technology, bought-and-paid-for-white papers masquerading as self reliant study and "industry consultants," the "shale promoters" have greatly overstated the potential offer of shale gasoline assets for his or her personal monetary achieve. This startling exposé, written via an insider, means that the stakes excited by the Enron scandal might sound like lunch funds compared to the bursting of the typical fuel bubble. Exhaustively researched and conscientiously documented, Cold, Hungry and within the Dark:
  • Puts supply-and-demand tendencies lower than a microscope
  • Provides overwhelming facts of the absurdity of the only hundred-year offer fantasy
  • Suggests various how you can mitigate the approaching traditional gasoline rate spike

The mainstream media has informed us that ordinary gasoline might be affordable and ample for many years, whilst not anything should be farther from the reality. Forewarned is forearmed. Cold, Hungry and within the Dark is key studying for an individual eager about the inevitable fiscal effect of our doubtful power future.
Bill Powers is an writer, deepest investor, contrarian and sits at the board of administrators of Calgary-based Arsenal Energy.

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Let’s research the diversities among my estimate of average destiny recoveries and the projections of the EIA/Intek of technically recoverable assets from 3 shale performs with major creation histories (Note: I strongly disagree with using the time period “technically recoverable assets” in any reputable source estimate because it offers credence to a principally lifeless estimation of destiny gasoline production): desk 19. 01. Intek Estimates of Underdeveloped Technically Recoverable Shale gasoline and Shale Oil 1/1/2009. 19 word: From prior EIA estimates and hence no longer assessed within the INTEK shale file. Subtotals and overall won't equivalent sum of parts as a result of autonomous rounding. 1. The Barnett Shale: As i mentioned in bankruptcy five, through mid-2012, the Barnett Shale had produced nearly 10 tcf of usual gasoline from approximately 16,000 wells. on condition that operators had already verified the outer limits of the play, I projected the Barnett may possibly recuperate one other 25 tcf over its lifetime. Intek predicted last technically recoverable assets for the play to be forty three tcf (see desk 19. 01). 20 2. The Fayetteville Shale: in keeping with the creation background on hand at the site of the Arkansas Oil and gasoline fee, the play produced three tcf of gasoline from somewhat greater than 4,000 wells among 2005, while construction began, and mid-2012. in response to a middle region of in basic terms 750,000 acres, a pragmatic estimate of lifetime creation from the Fayetteville will be 10 tcf. As you'll discover in desk 19. 01, even if, Intek estimates the play has last technically recoverable assets (TRR) of 32 tcf—more than thrice my estimate. 21 the single justification Intek presents within the record for this sort of huge projection is its estimation that the play is potential over 9,000 sq. miles. 22 despite the fact that, in accordance with approximately seven years of publicly to be had drilling effects, the Fayetteville Shale seems to be potential over basically 1,200 sq. miles (750,000 acres), a distinction of 86 percentage. three. The Antrim Shale: in response to Michigan Public carrier fee, the Antrim Shale produced three tcf from nearly 10,000 wells among 1989 and the tip of 2010. 23 regardless of the big upward thrust in average fuel costs among 2000 and 2008, and the numerous advances in shale fuel know-how because the play went into advertisement construction in 1989, construction from the Antrim Shale has dropped each year for the reason that 1998. 24 regardless of thirteen years of decline, and construction of in simple terms three tcf up to now, Intek anticipated the Antrim Shale includes one other 20 tcf of source capability (Table 19. 01). once more, Intek and the EIA are wildly positive of their estimation of the possibility of the Antrim in keeping with 22 years of creation background. i feel a extra average, even though very beneficiant, estimate for the possibility of the Antrim will be 2 tcf—one-tenth of Intek’s quantity. as well as grossly overstating the opportunity of the country’s 3 shale performs with the main creation historical past, Intek/the EIA additionally supply positive estimates of the potential for the Marcellus and Haynesville shales.

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